India’s Economic Survey projects modest GDP growth in coming years, flags risks from global uncertainty, weak private investment and a fragile rupee, while urging policy caution.

New Delhi: India’s latest Economic Survey of India has struck a cautious note on the country’s growth trajectory, projecting GDP expansion of 6.8–7.2 per cent in FY27 below the current fiscal while pegging medium-term growth potential at around 7 per cent.

The Survey points to an uncertain global environment, warning that geopolitical tensions could disrupt foreign capital inflows and add pressure on the rupee. It notes that while India continues to enjoy a surplus in services exports and remittances, these are insufficient to fully offset the merchandise trade deficit, leaving the external balance exposed.

On the domestic front, the document calls on the private sector to step up investment and job creation, even as it records a sharp rise in outward investment by Indian companies. Manufacturing, it estimates, will contribute just 12.8 per cent of GDP in FY26 far below long-stated ambitions while agricultural productivity in pulses, maize and cereals remains under global benchmarks.

The Survey also flags structural challenges beyond macro numbers, including student dropouts after Class 8, the need for policy redesign for gig workers, and urban constraints such as traffic congestion and high housing costs. It cautions that overheated valuations in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence could even trigger a crisis larger than 2008 if left unchecked.

Analysis: The Survey’s sober assessment suggests India may need to reset expectations rather than celebrate headline growth alone. For policymakers, the immediate task is to stabilise capital flows and revive private investment; for citizens, the message is that long-term development hinges as much on education, jobs and liveable cities as on GDP figures. This assessment reflects analytical opinion; all factual points above are drawn from the original content.